Global economic forecasts for next year 2024 in detail, with the opinions of economists and major economic institutions
Goldman Sachs : The performance of the global economy in 2024 will be better than expected
Driven by income growth and a slowdown in interest ratesGoldman Sachs expects global economic growth to exceed expectations in 2024, driven by strong income growth and confidence that interest rate hikes are over.
The investment bank expects the global economy to expand by 2.6% next year on an average annual basis, which is higher than the 2.1% expectations of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Goldman said that it is possible that the United States will outperform other developed markets again with growth estimated at about 2.1%, according to a report by the American CNBC that Al Arabiya Business viewed.
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The bank also believes that the bulk of the drag resulting from tightening monetary and fiscal policies has passed.
The US Federal Reserve began its aggressive interest rate hike campaign in March 2022 as inflation reached its highest levels in 40 years.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last Thursday that he was "not confident" that the Fed had done enough to address inflation, and indicated that further rate hikes may be necessary.
Goldman said that policymakers in developed markets are unlikely to cut interest rates before the second half of 2024 unless economic growth is weaker than expected.
The bank noted that inflation also continued to slow in the G10 and emerging market economies, and is expected to decline further.
“We still see recession risks but they are limited and we reiterate the possibility of a recession in the US at 15%.”
In September, the bank lowered its US recession forecast from 20% to 15% on the basis of slowing inflation and a resilient labor market.
The bank expects the economies of America, the Eurozone, and China to grow by 2.4%, 0.5%, and 5.3% during the end of this year on an annual basis.
While Germany's economy is expected to contract by 0.1% during the same period.
On the other hand, the economies of America and China are expected to slow down next year to 2.1% and 4.8%. While the eurozone economy is likely to grow by 0.9% in 2024.
The International Monetary Fund reduces its forecast for global economic growth in 2024 to 2.9%
The International Monetary Fund maintained its global growth forecast at 3% for the current year and expects growth of 2.9% in 2024, despite indicators of weakness recorded in several major economies, according to data published on Tuesday on the occasion of its annual meetings.
The Fund still expects global growth of 3% in 2023 and slightly less in 2024 at 2.9%, a slight decline (-0.1%) compared to its previous estimates issued in July. But he raised his expectations for the US economy with growth of 2.1% this year and 1.5% in 2024.
America:
2023.. 2.1% (+0.3% from July estimates)
2024.. 1.5% (+0.5% from July estimates)
On the other hand, the second largest global economy will record growth in its gross domestic product by 5% in 2023 and 4.2% next year, according to what the International Monetary Fund’s quarterly forecasts showed, meaning a decline of 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, compared to July forecasts.
As for Germany, it records the most worrying indicators, with a recession that is becoming clearer this year with -0.5% and wider than expected, and then a weak recovery next year with 0.9%, while the International Monetary Fund had expected a better performance in July.
Germany:
2023.. -0.5% (-0.2% from July estimates)
2024.. 0.9% (-0.4% from July estimates)
United kingdom:
2023.. 0.5% (+0.1% from July estimates)
2024.. 0.6% (-0.4% from July estimates)
"We have a global economy that is still recovering from the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, and at the same time we have growth that remains weak compared to its previous levels. We are also recording growing differences," Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the Fund's chief economist, said during an online press conference.
The situation varies between developed economies and emerging countries, as some of them see a significant improvement in their expectations, while other countries, especially in Europe, suffer from slowdowns and even witness a slight recession.
The reason for this is the continuing repercussions of some crises, especially the Russian invasion of Ukraine, while the slowdown in inflation takes time, which prompts central banks to continue a strict monetary policy with high interest rates.
The Fund warned of risks to the performance of the global economy, including the real estate crisis in China, continued high inflation rates, and an increase in the debt burden in some countries.
China:
2023..5% (-0.2% from July estimates)
2024.. 4.2% (-0.3% from July estimates)
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The International Monetary Fund maintained its global growth forecast at 3% for the current year and expects growth of 2.9% in 2024, despite indicators of weakness recorded in several major economies, according to data published on Tuesday on the occasion of its annual meetings.
The Fund still expects global growth of 3% in 2023 and slightly less in 2024 at 2.9%, a slight decline (-0.1%) compared to its previous estimates issued in July. But he raised his expectations for the US economy with growth of 2.1% this year and 1.5% in 2024.
America:
2023.. 2.1% (+0.3% from July estimates)
2024.. 1.5% (+0.5% from July estimates)
On the other hand, the second largest global economy will record growth in its gross domestic product by 5% in 2023 and 4.2% next year, according to what the International Monetary Fund’s quarterly forecasts showed, meaning a decline of 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, compared to July forecasts.
As for Germany, it records the most worrying indicators, with a recession that is becoming clearer this year with -0.5% and wider than expected, and then a weak recovery next year with 0.9%, while the International Monetary Fund had expected a better performance in July.
Germany:
2023.. -0.5% (-0.2% from July estimates)
2024.. 0.9% (-0.4% from July estimates)
United kingdom:
2023.. 0.5% (+0.1% from July estimates)
2024.. 0.6% (-0.4% from July estimates)
"We have a global economy that is still recovering from the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, and at the same time we have growth that remains weak compared to its previous levels. We are also recording growing differences," Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the Fund's chief economist, said during an online press conference.
The situation varies between developed economies and emerging countries, as some of them see a significant improvement in their expectations, while other countries, especially in Europe, suffer from slowdowns and even witness a slight recession.
The reason for this is the continuing repercussions of some crises, especially the Russian invasion of Ukraine, while the slowdown in inflation takes time, which prompts central banks to continue a strict monetary policy with high interest rates.
The Fund warned of risks to the performance of the global economy, including the real estate crisis in China, continued high inflation rates, and an increase in the debt burden in some countries.
China:
2023..5% (-0.2% from July estimates)
2024.. 4.2% (-0.3% from July estimates)
Tags
International Monetary Fund
Global growth
Inflation
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